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Asccent Home Loans California Direct Lender
Tuesdays 2-yr auction ($42 billion at 1.11%) was the talk of the town, in spite of generally being considered an average auction, or perhaps a little better. Indirect bidding, with all of its questionable worth but still used as a gauge of non-dealer customer demand, was good at almost 50%. Most believe that today’s 5-yr auction, and tomorrow’s 7-yr auction, will be a better thermometer of general demand for debt.
But in addition to a decent auction we had the S&P Case-Shiller US Home Price Index “only” down 14.9% versus a year ago. Fifteen out of twenty metropolitan areas posted price declines of more than 10% from a year earlier, and according to the index many areas are back to 2003 price levels. (The basic index uses a benchmark set in January 2000 of 100.) There were some areas that improved from the month prior: Cleveland (+4.2%) and San Francisco (+3.8%). For the last year, both Las Vegas and Phoenix were down over 31%. To balance that news out, Consumer Confidence saw its first gain in three months, coming in better than expected at 54.1. (Rock-bottom was in February at 25.3.)
Last week mortgage applications were up 7.5% versus the week before, according to the MBAA. Refi’s were up almost 13% whereas purchases were up 1%. It is nice to see that purchase applications were up for the fourth month in a row. In fact, compared to the same week in 2008 apps are up over 34%. That being said, some brokers feel that things are relatively slow and going to get slower because of HVCC which threaten the applications actually closing.
Today, as I mentioned, we have the $39 billion 5-yr auction. We also have Durable Goods and New Home Sales. The New Home numbers come out a little later, but Durable Goods (items that last longer than 3 years, like my grandson’s toothbrush) rose more than expected in July. In fact, at +4.9%, it was the biggest gain in two years. It is indeed a volatile number, however, and in July Durable Goods were actually down 1.3%. Versus a year ago new orders are down almost 26%. After the news we find 30-yr mortgage prices better by about .125 and the yield on the 10-yr Treasury down to 3.43%.
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PMI told clients that lenders will now be able to electronically submit all loans for their “PMI-to-PMI Refinance-to-Modification” programs. These programs focus on refinancing existing PMI-insured loans to allow “the same lender/servicer to refinance via HARP for GSE-owned loans as well as refinance-to-modification for loans owned by other investors and portfolio lenders and a new lender/servicer to refinance via HARP for GSE-owned loans as well as refinance-to-modification for loans owned by other investors.”
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